ITRPV 2026: BC's market share will reach 28% over ten years, silver demand will peak, and tandem solar cells will enter mass production in 2027.

The newly released 17th edition of Intersolar Europe's International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) shows that despite facing multiple challenges such as overcapacity and significant price fluctuations, the global photovoltaic industry continues to demonstrate strong resilience in technological iteration and cost reduction.

This authoritative report, jointly compiled by 38 leading companies and research institutions across the global crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry chain, comprehensively outlines the industry's technological iteration path, clearly demonstrating that the industry is fully shifting towards higher efficiency while continuing the decades-long "learning curve" pattern of cost reduction.

The report points out that the industry's learning curve will increase to 26% from 1976 to 2025; N-type cells will fully replace P-type PERC, silver consumption will reach a historical turning point, and silicon perovskite tandem cells will achieve mass production in 2027.

Key Indicator: Industry Learning Curve Rises to 26%

A key conclusion of this edition is that the photovoltaic industry's learning rate will increase to 26% from 1976 to 2025, compared to 24.9% in the previous edition.

This indicator represents the decrease in unit cost of modules for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity in the industry. It confirms that even with overcapacity and fierce price competition in the past two years, the underlying logic of photovoltaics—relying on technological innovation to continuously reduce production costs—remains unchanged.

In 2023 and 2024, the industry experienced a sharp drop in module prices due to overcapacity. By the end of 2025, prices stabilized and rebounded slightly, with the end-user price at approximately $0.09/watt, an increase of $0.01 compared to the end of 2024. The core driver of this price recovery was the implementation of domestic energy regulation policies, which tightened new capacity expansion across the board, balancing the severely oversupplied market.

Major Technological Migration: N-type Completely Replaces P-type, BC Technology Achieves 28% Market Share in Ten Years. The solar energy industry is experiencing a fundamental technological iteration inflection point. The report confirms that in 2024, the market share of N-type TOPCon officially surpassed that of traditional P-type PERC, and the replacement process accelerated comprehensively in 2025.

In terms of efficiency: Current mass-produced TOPCon solar panels achieve an efficiency of 23.5%, on par with HJT; TOPCon back-contact (TBC) modules lead the industry with an efficiency of 24.1%; traditional P-type PERC modules only reach 21.7%. Meanwhile, high-power, bifacial, and N-type modules have shed their high-end premium attributes and become the mainstream in the market.

Almost all new capacity is being invested in N-type routes such as TOPCon, HJT, and IBC back-contact, with only a small number of newly built production lines outside of China still choosing P-type PERC. The report predicts that the global market share of back-contact (BC) cells will reach 28% in the next ten years.

Silicon Wafers and Crystal Growth: Thinner Silicon Wafers Become a Unified Trend

The report shows that by the end of 2025, the total global capacity of polysilicon, silicon ingots, and silicon wafers will exceed 1230GW. The Siemens process remains the mainstream silicon material processing technology, with a market share of 85% in 2025; fluidized bed FBR (Fluorescent Batch Reactor) granular silicon accounts for the remaining 15%, and is expected to increase to 28% within ten years.

The industry continues to reduce silicon material consumption per watt: Silicon material usage for M10 wafers will decrease by 26% over the next ten years, and for G12 by 26.4%, achieved through three main paths: improved crystal growth yield, reduced cutting losses, and thinner wafers. The target silicon consumption for G12 wafers is 1.39 g/W by 2036, and for M10, it will decrease to 1.27 g/W.

Heavily doped Czochralski (RCz) silicon ingots have long monopolized the market, maintaining a market share of 95%-100% after 2025; continuous Czochralski (CCz) and magnetron Czochralski (MCz) are gradually penetrating the market, with a combined share exceeding 5% by 2036; uncut wafer technology is expected to be commercially available on a small scale only in 2033, with a market share of less than 1% before 2036, and diamond wire cutting will remain the mainstream. M6 silicon wafers will be completely phased out of the market by 2025, with M10, G12, and rectangular silicon wafers becoming standard in new production lines. It is predicted that by 2036, G12 and rectangular silicon wafers will account for 76% of the market, and larger sizes than G12 will approach 20%. In 2025, N-type silicon wafers will have a market share of 82%, exceeding 98% in ten years. All types of silicon wafers will continue to thin, with the HJT route showing the fastest thinning progress. In the long term, the thickness of G12 IBC silicon wafers will be only 110μm, but the challenges of bending and handling ultra-thin silicon wafers still need to be solved by the industry.

Battery Manufacturing: LECO and ALD Passivation Widely Adopted

Global battery production capacity will reach 1260GW in 2025. The report emphasizes the increasingly sophisticated technologies in battery cell manufacturing, with improved tooling design optimizing the capacity matching between front-end and back-end processes. This optimization is crucial for supporting future capacity increases while maintaining quality and efficiency standards.

The report points out a significant trend: the introduction of Laser Enhanced Contact Optimization (LECO) into TOPCon production lines, a process step that improves the conversion efficiency of TOPCon cells.

According to ITRPV data, uniform emitters using LECO will account for 74% of the market in 2025, and this share is expected to increase to 86% by 2036. Within the next decade, the proportion of emitters used in n-type TOPCon cells manufactured using non-LECO processes will be less than 5%.

The report also indicates that edge passivation using atomic layer deposition (ALD) or plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) processes is expected to become important in the next decade to eliminate edge recombination problems in technologies such as TOPCon or HJT using half-cell cells. It is projected that by 2036, ALD or PECVD edge passivation will account for 80% of the market share.

Silver consumption is reaching a turning point, with copper metallization largely replacing silver paste.

A pressing challenge in battery manufacturing is the high silver consumption during the metallization process. The ITRPV report shows that the 706GW of modules shipped in 2025 consumed approximately 7,244 tons of silver, accounting for about 21.4% of the total global silver supply. This figure is significantly higher than the 17% reported in the 2026 World Silver Survey, demonstrating the profound impact of the photovoltaic industry on global silver supply and demand.

Silver consumption varies depending on the cell type. In 2025, TOPCon bifacial cells consumed approximately 10 mg/W of silver, HJT 12 mg/W, and TBC back contact 12.2 mg/W, all higher than the 8.9 mg/W of P-type PERC. This led to significant silver price fluctuations, with silver reaching a high of $3,729/kg in 2026 before falling back to $2,452 in June, while the cost per watt of silver remained at 2.5 cents.

However, the report points out that the industry is facing a major turning point: with the same module shipment scale, the industry's total silver consumption in 2025 declined year-on-year, demonstrating the effectiveness of silver reduction technologies.

The roadmap outlines ambitious silver consumption reduction targets: TOPCon silver consumption will drop to 6.3 mg/W in ten years, and HJT to only 4.3 mg/W; copper plating in HJT cells will accelerate the replacement of silver paste, with pure silver metallization reaching only 8% by 2036, by silver-plated copper at 62% and pure copper at 30%.

“We are seeing the first reduction in silver consumption in many years while maintaining the same number of modules shipped,” said Markus Fischer, co-chair of the ITRPV steering committee, at the report's release in Munich earlier this week. “Therefore, this is truly good news.”

This is primarily due to efficient cell technology and cell layout, while we are seeing copper-based materials specifically applied to HJT cells and will also be used in tandem cells in the future. Currently, we are observing peak silver consumption. I am quite confident that silver will not become a scarce material in photovoltaic manufacturing.

Module Encapsulation: Thin Glass and POE Film Accelerate Penetration

By the end of 2025, global module production capacity will reach approximately 1460 GW, with crystalline silicon accounting for 98% and thin-film accounting for only 2%.

Reducing material costs and improving performance are key to lowering the overall cost of modules. In recent years, glass has become a hot topic in the industry, with 2-3mm glass currently being the mainstream. The report predicts that thinner glass (below 2mm) will account for 10% of the market by 2036, while 2-3mm will remain at 86%. Glass backsheets are gradually replacing composite backsheets, and the proportion of double-glass solutions will increase significantly within ten years.

At the module level, encapsulation materials and backsheet materials are also key areas for cost reduction, both being significant cost components. Regarding encapsulation films, traditional EVA maintains its market share due to cost, but POE and EVA/POE blend films continue to increase their penetration rate due to their reliability.

It is expected that in the next few years, glass will become the dominant backsheet material, while the market share of combinations using glass on the front and a metal frame on the back will decline to below 16% within ten years.

Long-term technology roadmap: Mass production of tandem cells by 2027

Looking ahead, the roadmap anticipates that the efficiency of single-junction cell technology will continue to improve, with module efficiency expected to reach 26.3% by 2035. However, the most exciting development lies in tandem solar cell technology, which promises to break through the efficiency limits of single-junction cells.

According to the survey results, tandem solar cells and modules are expected to enter mass production around 2027, with module efficiency expected to reach approximately 27.4% by 2028. These silicon-based tandem technologies represent the next frontier in photovoltaic efficiency and may achieve even higher performance levels in the coming years.

The report also emphasizes that as the scale of photovoltaic system installations continues to expand, recycling is becoming increasingly important as a business opportunity and challenge. Smart factory models and advanced manufacturing concepts, including more comprehensive data transparency and tracking systems, are expected to play an increasingly important role in supporting the industry's growth trajectory.

The Terawatt-Scale Future

The ITRPV report concludes with an optimistic yet realistic assessment of the industry's future. According to a broad electrification scenario proposed by researchers Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian Breyer at ITRPV, the photovoltaic industry must install approximately 63.4 TW by 2050 to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission energy systems, generating 104 PWh of electricity, representing about 69% of global primary energy demand in the power, heat, transportation, and desalination sectors.

This translates to an average annual market size of 4.5 TW by 2050. While historical shipments have been close to demand levels, shipments did not grow between 2024 and 2025 despite ample capacity, indicating that market development must accelerate to keep pace with climate goals.

Despite current overcapacity challenges, the report highlights the positive outlook for the entire crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry. Continuous efficiency improvements, reduced unit costs, technological advancements driven by tandem cells, and the inevitable trend towards terawatt-scale markets lay a solid foundation for the industry's long-term success.